论文标题
气候模型集合预测极端风险的本地时间不变的度量
A locally time-invariant metric for climate model ensemble predictions of extreme risk
论文作者
论文摘要
气候变化的适应性预测通常是通过将气候模型模拟在多模型合奏中结合而得出的。在高影响力极端事件的背景下，基于绩效的集合加权方案中使用的模型评估方法具有局限性。我们引入了一种局部时间不变的方法，用于评估气候模型模拟，重点是评估极端的模拟。我们探讨了所提出的方法在预测内罗毕的极端热天气方面的行为，并为另外八个城市提供了比较结果。
Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the context of high-impact extreme events. We introduce a locally time-invariant method for evaluating climate model simulations with a focus on assessing the simulation of extremes. We explore the behaviour of the proposed method in predicting extreme heat days in Nairobi and provide comparative results for eight additional cities.
