论文标题
使用贝叶斯张量产品p-Splines的各向异性多维平滑
Anisotropic multidimensional smoothing using Bayesian tensor product P-splines
论文作者
论文摘要
我们引入了一种高效的全贝叶斯方法,用于各向异性多维平滑。在这种情况下,主要的挑战是马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛对平滑参数的更新,因为它们的完整条件后部包括伪确定的,一见钟情似乎很棘手。结果,大多数现有的实现在计算上仅是为了估计二维张量产品光滑,但是对于许多应用来说,这太过限制了。在本文中,我们打破了这一障碍,并得出了对数伪钉确定的及其第一阶和二阶部分衍生物的封闭形式表达式。这些表达式对于任意维度和评估效率非常有效,这使我们能够为平滑参数设置具有自适应大都市悬挂更新的有效MCMC采样器。我们研究了平滑参数的不同先验,并讨论了低维效应的有效推导,例如一维主要效应和二维相互作用。我们表明,建议的方法在准确性,可伸缩性和计算成本方面优于文献中的先前建议,并通过考虑说明温度数据的示例来证明其适用性。
We introduce a highly efficient fully Bayesian approach for anisotropic multidimensional smoothing. The main challenge in this context is the Markov chain Monte Carlo update of the smoothing parameters as their full conditional posterior comprises a pseudo-determinant that appears to be intractable at first sight. As a consequence, most existing implementations are computationally feasible only for the estimation of two-dimensional tensor product smooths, which is, however, too restrictive for many applications. In this paper, we break this barrier and derive closed-form expressions for the log-pseudo-determinant and its first and second order partial derivatives. These expressions are valid for arbitrary dimension and very efficient to evaluate, which allows us to set up an efficient MCMC sampler with adaptive Metropolis-Hastings updates for the smoothing parameters. We investigate different priors for the smoothing parameters and discuss the efficient derivation of lower-dimensional effects such as one-dimensional main effects and two-dimensional interactions. We show that the suggested approach outperforms previous suggestions in the literature in terms of accuracy, scalability and computational cost and demonstrate its applicability by consideration of an illustrating temperature data example from spatio-temporal statistics.