论文标题
超越合奏平均值:利用气候模型组合进行下午预测
Beyond Ensemble Averages: Leveraging Climate Model Ensembles for Subseasonal Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
在亚季节时间尺度上产生关键气候变量(例如温度和降水)的高质量预测长期以来一直是操作预测的差距。这项研究探讨了机器学习(ML)模型作为亚种预测的后处理工具。滞后的数值集合预测(即成员具有不同初始化日期的合奏)和观察数据,包括相对湿度,海平面压力和地球电位高度,以预测美国大陆为美国大陆两周的每月平均降水量和两周的两周。为了进行回归,分位数回归和二尖管分类任务,我们考虑使用线性模型,随机森林,卷积神经网络和堆叠模型(基于单个ML模型的预测)。与以前的ML通常单独使用集合的方法不同,我们利用嵌入整体预测中的信息来提高预测准确性。此外,我们研究了极端的事件预测,这些预测对于计划和缓解工作至关重要。将合奏成员视为空间预测的集合,我们探讨了使用空间信息的不同方法。通过模型堆叠可以减轻不同方法之间的权衡。我们提出的模型优于标准基线,例如气候预测和整体手段。此外,我们研究特征的重要性,使用完整的合奏或仅合奏均值之间的权衡,以及有关空间可变性的不同会计模式。
Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models as post-processing tools for subseasonal forecasting. Lagged numerical ensemble forecasts (i.e., an ensemble where the members have different initialization dates) and observational data, including relative humidity, pressure at sea level, and geopotential height, are incorporated into various ML methods to predict monthly average precipitation and two-meter temperature two weeks in advance for the continental United States. For regression, quantile regression, and tercile classification tasks, we consider using linear models, random forests, convolutional neural networks, and stacked models (a multi-model approach based on the prediction of the individual ML models). Unlike previous ML approaches that often use ensemble mean alone, we leverage information embedded in the ensemble forecasts to enhance prediction accuracy. Additionally, we investigate extreme event predictions that are crucial for planning and mitigation efforts. Considering ensemble members as a collection of spatial forecasts, we explore different approaches to using spatial information. Trade-offs between different approaches may be mitigated with model stacking. Our proposed models outperform standard baselines such as climatological forecasts and ensemble means. In addition, we investigate feature importance, trade-offs between using the full ensemble or only the ensemble mean, and different modes of accounting for spatial variability.