论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Valid and efficient imprecise-probabilistic inference with partial priors, II. General framework
论文作者
论文摘要
贝叶斯推断需要指定单个精确的先验分布,而频繁的推断仅适用于先验。由于实际上每个实际应用程序都属于这两个极端之间,因此需要一种新的方法。这一系列论文开发了一个新的框架,可提供有效,有效的统计推断,预测等,同时更广泛地容纳部分先验信息和不确定的模型。本文充实了一般的推论模型构建,该模型不仅可以产生测试,置信区间等。这里的关键技术新颖性是一种所谓的外部辅音近似,对一般不精确的概率,该概率返回用于推理和预测的数据和部分先前依赖性的可能性。尽管该开发中可能存在一些不熟悉的不精确型概念概念,但结果是一个直观的,可能性驱动的框架,它将正如预期的那样,在相应的极端情况下,它将与熟悉的贝叶斯和频繁的解决方案一致。更重要的是,所提出的框架可以在可用的地方适应部分先验信息,因此导致了以前对贝叶斯人和频繁主义者遥不可及的新解决方案。此处提供了详细信息,以获取广泛的示例,并提供更多实用的详细信息。
Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes, a new approach is needed. This series of papers develops a new framework that provides valid and efficient statistical inference, prediction, etc., while accommodating partial prior information and imprecisely-specified models more generally. This paper fleshes out a general inferential model construction that not only yields tests, confidence intervals, etc.~with desirable error rate control guarantees, but also facilitates valid probabilistic reasoning with de~Finetti-style no-sure-loss guarantees. The key technical novelty here is a so-called outer consonant approximation of a general imprecise probability which returns a data- and partial prior-dependent possibility measure to be used for inference and prediction. Despite some potentially unfamiliar imprecise-probabilistic concepts in the development, the result is an intuitive, likelihood-driven framework that will, as expected, agree with the familiar Bayesian and frequentist solutions in the respective extreme cases. More importantly, the proposed framework accommodates partial prior information where available and, therefore, leads to new solutions that were previously out of reach for both Bayesians and frequentists. Details are presented here for a wide range of examples, with more practical details to come in later installments.