论文标题
与随机协变量的随机Kriging辅助模拟的收敛分析
Convergence Analysis of Stochastic Kriging-Assisted Simulation with Random Covariates
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑在协变量存在下进行仿真实验。在这里,协变量是指除了系统设计以外的一些输入信息,该信息也可能影响系统性能。为了做出决策,决策者需要了解问题的协变量。传统上,在基于模拟的决策中,在已知协变量值之后收集模拟样本。相反,作为一个新框架,与协变量的仿真启动了模拟,然后才能揭示协变量值,并在可能以后出现的协变量值中收集样品。然后,当揭示协变量值时,收集的模拟样品直接用于预测所需的结果。与传统的模拟方式相比,该框架大大减少了决策时间。在本文中,我们遵循此框架,并假设系统设计数量有限。我们采用随机Kriging(SK)的元模型,并使用它来预测每种设计和最佳设计的系统性能。目的是研究预测误差的速度随着协变点采样的数量而减少的速度。这是与协变量模拟的基本问题,并有助于量化离线模拟工作与在线预测准确性之间的关系。特别是,我们采用了最大综合平方误差(IMSE)和错误选择的综合概率(IPF)的衡量标准,以评估系统性能的错误和最佳的设计预测。然后,我们在轻度条件下建立了这两种措施的收敛速率。最后,使用测试示例以数字说明这些收敛行为。
We consider performing simulation experiments in the presence of covariates. Here, covariates refer to some input information other than system designs to the simulation model that can also affect the system performance. To make decisions, decision makers need to know the covariate values of the problem. Traditionally in simulation-based decision making, simulation samples are collected after the covariate values are known; in contrast, as a new framework, simulation with covariates starts the simulation before the covariate values are revealed, and collects samples on covariate values that might appear later. Then, when the covariate values are revealed, the collected simulation samples are directly used to predict the desired results. This framework significantly reduces the decision time compared to the traditional way of simulation. In this paper, we follow this framework and suppose there are a finite number of system designs. We adopt the metamodel of stochastic kriging (SK) and use it to predict the system performance of each design and the best design. The goal is to study how fast the prediction errors diminish with the number of covariate points sampled. This is a fundamental problem in simulation with covariates and helps quantify the relationship between the offline simulation efforts and the online prediction accuracy. Particularly, we adopt measures of the maximal integrated mean squared error (IMSE) and integrated probability of false selection (IPFS) for assessing errors of the system performance and the best design predictions. Then, we establish convergence rates for the two measures under mild conditions. Last, these convergence behaviors are illustrated numerically using test examples.