论文标题
主动劳动力市场政策的宏观经济影响：一种新颖的工具变量方法
Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Policies: A Novel Instrumental Variables Approach
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究评估了2005年至2018年期间，主动劳动力市场政策（ALMP）在德国的宏观经济影响。我们提出了一种新颖的识别策略，以克服ALMP和劳动力市场在区域层面的同时性。它利用了当地劳动力市场和当地就业机构的不完善重叠，这些机构决定了当地实施政策。具体而言，我们可以在本地劳动力市场上使用ALMP，并在该市场外实施ALMP的组合，但在与该市场部分重叠的当地就业机构中实施。我们发现短期激活措施和进一步的职业培训对总体劳动力市场成果的影响没有影响。相比之下，工资补贴大大增加了工人在未订阅的就业中的份额，同时降低了长期失业和福利依赖。我们的结果表明，ALMP的负面外部性会部分抵消对计划参与者的影响，并且劳动力市场的某些部分比其他局部受益更多。
This study evaluates the macroeconomic effects of active labour market policies (ALMP) in Germany over the period 2005 to 2018. We propose a novel identification strategy to overcome the simultaneity of ALMP and labour market outcomes at the regional level. It exploits the imperfect overlap of local labour markets and local employment agencies that decide on the local implementation of policies. Specifically, we instrument for the use of ALMP in a local labour market with the mix of ALMP implemented outside this market but in local employment agencies that partially overlap with this market. We find no effects of short-term activation measures and further vocational training on aggregate labour market outcomes. In contrast, wage subsidies substantially increase the share of workers in unsubsidised employment while lowering long-term unemployment and welfare dependency. Our results suggest that negative externalities of ALMP partially offset the effects for program participants and that some segments of the labour market benefit more than others.
