论文标题
调查东京第六和第7波爆发的因素
Investigating factors behind the outbreak of the 6th and the 7th waves of COVID-19 in Tokyo
论文作者
论文摘要
东京的第六波浪潮持续了最长的感染时期（从2021年11月下旬起约190天），第七波发生在2022年5月中旬，是有史以来最大的浪潮（累计170万人）。为了阐明其因素，使用AVRAMI方程分析了感染波。第六波的主要组成部分是通过新的一年假期和新病毒变体Omicron Ba.1的偶联而形成的。此后，通过入侵新病毒变体Omicron Ba.2和在2月，3月和5月的连续假期中的人类相互作用来形成侧波。这些侧波导致第六波很长一段时间内不收敛。第七波主要组成部分的爆发发生在新病毒变体Omicron BA.5和多个社会因素的耦合中，随后在7月节日期间进行了人类相互作用。根据域增长率$ K $和感染时间$ t_ \ mathrm {on} $的结果，几乎独立于初始易感$ d_ \ mathrm {s} $，密集的成核，然后是近乎增长的模型。数量$ k \ cdot t_ \ mathrm {on} $被认为表示病毒的感染力。
The 6th wave of COVID-19 in Tokyo continued for the longest period of infection (about 190 days from late Nov. 2021), and the 7th wave, which occurred in mid-May 2022, was the largest wave ever (cumulative 1.7 million people). In order to elucidate their factors, the infection wave was analyzed by using the Avrami equation. The main component of the 6th wave was formed by the coupling of increased human interaction due to the New Year holidays and the invasion of the new virus variant Omicron BA.1. After that, side waves were formed by the coupling of the invasion of the new virus variant Omicron BA.2 and the human interaction in the consecutive holidays in February, March, and May. These side waves caused the 6th wave not to converge for a long time. The outbreak of the main component of the 7th wave occurred by the coupling of the invasion of the new virus variant Omicron BA.5 and multiple social factors, followed by human interaction during the July holidays. Based on the results that the domain growth rate $K$ and the infection rise time $t_\mathrm{on}$ were almost independent of the initial susceptible $D_\mathrm{s}$, dense nucleation followed by a near growth model was deduced. The quantity $K \cdot t_\mathrm{on}$ was considered to represent the infectivity of the virus.
