论文标题
曲折:通过两步推断的通用无抽样的不确定性估计
ZigZag: Universal Sampling-free Uncertainty Estimation Through Two-Step Inference
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管已经充分证明了深网产生有用预测的能力,但估计这些预测的可靠性仍然具有挑战性。为此,出现了诸如MC-Dropout和深层合奏之类的抽样方法。不幸的是,他们需要在推理时间进行许多前进传球,这使他们放慢了速度。无抽样方法可以更快,但会遇到其他缺点,例如不确定性估计的可靠性较低,使用难度以及对不同类型的任务和数据的适用性有限。 在这项工作中,我们引入了一种无抽样的方法,该方法既通用且易于部署,同时在与最新方法相当的情况下以明显降低的计算成本产生可靠的不确定性估计。它是基于培训网络以产生相同输出的相同输出的基础,并且没有其他有关它的信息。在推理时,当未提供事先信息时,我们将网络自己的预测用作附加信息。然后,我们将预测之间的距离或以前的信息作为我们的不确定性度量。 我们演示了我们的几个分类和回归任务的方法。我们表明,它与合奏的结果相当,但计算成本低得多。
Whereas the ability of deep networks to produce useful predictions has been amply demonstrated, estimating the reliability of these predictions remains challenging. Sampling approaches such as MC-Dropout and Deep Ensembles have emerged as the most popular ones for this purpose. Unfortunately, they require many forward passes at inference time, which slows them down. Sampling-free approaches can be faster but suffer from other drawbacks, such as lower reliability of uncertainty estimates, difficulty of use, and limited applicability to different types of tasks and data. In this work, we introduce a sampling-free approach that is generic and easy to deploy, while producing reliable uncertainty estimates on par with state-of-the-art methods at a significantly lower computational cost. It is predicated on training the network to produce the same output with and without additional information about it. At inference time, when no prior information is given, we use the network's own prediction as the additional information. We then take the distance between the predictions with and without prior information as our uncertainty measure. We demonstrate our approach on several classification and regression tasks. We show that it delivers results on par with those of Ensembles but at a much lower computational cost.