论文标题
在新兴市场借用限制
Borrowing Constraints in Emerging Markets
论文作者
论文摘要
借用约束是现代国际宏观经济模型的关键组成部分。对新兴市场(EM)经济体的分析通常假设附带借贷的限制,即公司获得债务的限制受其抵押资产的价值的限制。使用1998 - 2020年期间阿根廷的信用注册表数据,我们表明,只有不到15%的公司债务基于抵押资产的价值,其余的85%基于公司现金流量。我们认为,根据银行资本要求和信贷政策利用中央银行的法规,我们认为最普遍的借贷约束是根据其利息支付与目前和过去现金流量的度量的比率来定义的,类似于公司财政文献研究的利息覆盖范围借款约束。最后,我们认为EMS比美国和其他发达经济体表现出更大的兴趣敏感借贷约束。从结构的角度来看,我们表明,在原本标准的小型开放经济DSGE模型中,与标准的附带限制因素相比,借贷限制限制会导致外国利率冲击的扩增明显更强。这种更大的扩增为美国货币政策利率的溢出难题提供了一种解决方案,而美国货币政策利率比美国利率上涨后的发达经济体经历更大的负面影响。就政策含义而言,这种更大的扩增会导致托管汇率政策在存在兴趣覆盖范围的情况下,鉴于其利率较高的利率敏感性,与标准的附带借贷约束相比。
Borrowing constraints are a key component of modern international macroeconomic models. The analysis of Emerging Markets (EM) economies generally assumes collateral borrowing constraints, i.e., firms access to debt is constrained by the value of their collateralized assets. Using credit registry data from Argentina for the period 1998-2020 we show that less than 15% of firms debt is based on the value of collateralized assets, with the remaining 85% based on firms cash flows. Exploiting central bank regulations over banks capital requirements and credit policies we argue that the most prevalent borrowing constraints is defined in terms of the ratio of their interest payments to a measure of their present and past cash flows, akin to the interest coverage borrowing constraint studied by the corporate finance literature. Lastly, we argue that EMs exhibit a greater share of interest sensitive borrowing constraints than the US and other Advanced Economies. From a structural point of view, we show that in an otherwise standard small open economy DSGE model, an interest coverage borrowing constraints leads to significantly stronger amplification of foreign interest rate shocks compared to the standard collateral constraint. This greater amplification provides a solution to the Spillover Puzzle of US monetary policy rates by which EMs experience greater negative effects than Advanced Economies after a US interest rate hike. In terms of policy implications, this greater amplification leads to managed exchange rate policy being more costly in the presence of an interest coverage constraint, given their greater interest rate sensitivity, compared to the standard collateral borrowing constraint.