论文标题
阈值自回归运动平均模型的强大估计
Robust estimation for Threshold Autoregressive Moving-Average models
论文作者
论文摘要
阈值自回旋运动平均值(TARMA)模型在时间序列分析中很受欢迎,因为它们能够逐渐描述几个复杂的动力学特征。但是,当数据呈现沉重的尾巴或异常观察时,目前均无法使用理论和估计方法,这在应用程序中通常是这种情况。在本文中,我们为柏油模型的强大M估计提供了第一个理论框架,并研究了其实际相关性。在轻度条件下,我们表明阈值参数的稳健估计器是超稳定的,而自回旋和移动平均参数的估计器非常一致,并且渐近正常。蒙特卡洛的研究表明,在偏差和方差方面,M-估计量与最小二乘估计量相比是优越的,这可能会受到异常值的严重影响。研究结果表明,强大的M估计性通常应优于最小二乘法。最后,我们将方法应用于一组商品价格时间序列;与最小二乘相比,稳健的柏油碎石拟合会出现较小的标准误差,并导致较高的预测精度。结果支持了零左右的两极,不对称的非线性的假设,其特征在于缓慢的扩张和快速收缩。
Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently available when the data present heavy tails or anomalous observations, which is often the case in applications. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for robust M-estimation for TARMA models and also study its practical relevance. Under mild conditions, we show that the robust estimator for the threshold parameter is super-consistent, while the estimators for autoregressive and moving-average parameters are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The Monte Carlo study shows that the M-estimator is superior, in terms of both bias and variance, to the least squares estimator, which can be heavily affected by outliers. The findings suggest that robust M-estimation should be generally preferred to the least squares method. Finally, we apply our methodology to a set of commodity price time series; the robust TARMA fit presents smaller standard errors and leads to superior forecasting accuracy compared to the least squares fit. The results support the hypothesis of a two-regime, asymmetric nonlinearity around zero, characterised by slow expansions and fast contractions.