论文标题
赌博势头
Gambling on Momentum
论文作者
论文摘要
体育博彩市场是现实世界中实验室，以测试资产定价异常和风险行为的理论。使用主要的博彩公司直接提供的高频数据集，其中包含整个德国政府橄榄球比赛的几率和数量，我们测试了在均衡目标之后的投注和定价行为中的动力证据。我们发现，投篮者看到具有明显动力的球队的价值，比刚获得均衡器的球队比他们多40％。尽管如此，没有证据表明这种感知到的动量平均而言是对匹配结果的平均问题，或者与博彩公司提供有利的赔率有关。我们还确认，赌注明显的动力将导致赌注巨大损失。
Sports betting markets are proven real-world laboratories to test theories of asset pricing anomalies and risky behaviour. Using a high-frequency dataset provided directly by a major bookmaker, containing the odds and amounts staked throughout German Bundesliga football matches, we test for evidence of momentum in the betting and pricing behaviour after equalising goals. We find that bettors see value in teams that have the apparent momentum, staking about 40% more on them than teams that just conceded an equaliser. Still, there is no evidence that such perceived momentum matters on average for match outcomes or is associated with the bookmaker offering favourable odds. We also confirm that betting on the apparent momentum would lead to substantial losses for bettors.
