论文标题

边缘的黄金城:经济地理和圣战多了几个世纪

The Golden City on the Edge: Economic Geography and Jihad over Centuries

论文作者

Kubo, Masahiro, Tsuda, Shunsuke

论文摘要

本文在几个世纪以来,揭示了城市和伊斯兰叛乱的演变,即所谓的圣战。在西非,古代的水通量预测内陆贸易路线核心城市的位置 - 萨哈拉跨大篷车的路线 - 建立在1800年代,当时历史伊斯兰国家在欧洲殖民之前发挥了重要的经济作用。相比之下,古代水的获取对当代城市的形成和经济活动没有持续的影响。在欧洲殖民化和现代贸易技术的发明以及水源的不断缩小之后,内陆的殖民前核心城市收缩或灭绝了。我们采用工具性可变策略,表明这些荒芜的地点今天被圣战组织的战场取代。我们认为,在19世纪的殖民时代,伊斯兰国与欧洲军队之间的权力关系塑造了圣战意识形态作为殖民化的遗产的持久性。使用穆斯林的个人调查,对与圣战有关的宗教意识形态的调查支持了这种机制。此外,西非的“过去核心和外围”地区的圣战暴力集中在全球规模的现象一致。最后,随着时间的推移,竞争派系之间组织异质性(基地组织和伊斯兰国)之间的组织异质性,一部分方式解释了暴力事件的溢出。

This paper uncovers the evolution of cities and Islamist insurgencies, so called jihad, in the process of the reversal of fortune over the centuries. In West Africa, water access in ancient periods predicts the locations of the core cities of inland trade routes -- the trans-Saharan caravan routes -- founded up to the 1800s, when historical Islamic states played significant economic roles before European colonization. In contrast, ancient water access does not have a persistent influence on contemporary city formation and economic activities. After European colonization and the invention of modern trading technologies, along with the constant shrinking of water sources, landlocked pre-colonial core cities contracted or became extinct. Employing an instrumental variable strategy, we show that these deserted locations have today been replaced by battlefields for jihadist organizations. We argue that the power relations between Islamic states and the European military during the 19th century colonial era shaped the persistence of jihadist ideology as a legacy of colonization. Investigations into religious ideology related to jihadism, using individual-level surveys from Muslims, support this mechanism. Moreover, the concentration of jihadist violence in "past-core-and-present-periphery" areas in West Africa is consistent with a global-scale phenomenon. Finally, spillovers of violent events beyond these stylized locations are partly explained by organizational heterogeneity among competing factions (Al Qaeda and the Islamic State) over time.

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