论文标题
GDP竞争力的逻辑预测
Logistic forecasting of GDP competitiveness
论文作者
论文摘要
国民经济的GDP增长是由逻辑功能建立的。直到2020年，我们将其应用于世界银行的GDP数据，并预测日本，德国，英国和印度竞争性GDP增长的结果，其目前的GDP彼此非常接近。实现其中一个预测，在2022年，印度的GDP确实超过了英国的GDP。我们的总体预测是，到2047年，印度的GDP将大于其他三个国家。我们认为，当贸易饱和时，大量和人口的国家（如印度）会受益于国内消费的好处，以推动其GDP增长。
The GDP growth of national economies is modelled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK and India, all of whose current GDPs are very close to one another. Fulfilling one of the predictions, in 2022 the GDP of India has indeed overtaken the GDP of UK. Our overall forecast is that by 2047, the GDP of India will be greater than that of the other three countries. We argue that when trade saturates, large and populous countries (like India) have the benefit of high domestic consumption to propel their GDP growth.
