论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
A Data-Driven Evolutionary Transfer Optimization for Expensive Problems in Dynamic Environments
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Many real-world problems are usually computationally costly and the objective functions evolve over time. Data-driven, a.k.a. surrogate-assisted, evolutionary optimization has been recognized as an effective approach for tackling expensive black-box optimization problems in a static environment whereas it has rarely been studied under dynamic environments. This paper proposes a simple but effective transfer learning framework to empower data-driven evolutionary optimization to solve dynamic optimization problems. Specifically, it applies a hierarchical multi-output Gaussian process to capture the correlation between data collected from different time steps with a linearly increased number of hyperparameters. Furthermore, an adaptive source task selection along with a bespoke warm staring initialization mechanisms are proposed to better leverage the knowledge extracted from previous optimization exercises. By doing so, the data-driven evolutionary optimization can jump start the optimization in the new environment with a strictly limited computational budget. Experiments on synthetic benchmark test problems and a real-world case study demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm against nine state-of-the-art peer algorithms.
