论文标题
基于智能手机的地震预警系统的警报功能的统计推断的仿真框架。随着海地地震网络系统的案例研究
A simulation framework for statistical inference on the alerting capabilities of smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems. With a case study on the Earthquake Network system in Haiti
论文作者
论文摘要
公民科学计划实施的基于智能手机的地震预警系统的特征是其智能手机网络几何形状有显着可变性。这直接影响了系统的地震检测能力和性能。在这里，实施了基于蒙特卡洛方法的仿真框架，以推断相关数量的地震检测，例如与震中的检测距离，检测延迟以及暴露于高地面震动水平的警告时间。该框架应用于过去几十年来经历致命地震的海地，以及地震网络公民科学倡议的网络，该倡议在该国很受欢迎。据发现，该计划在人口中的渗透率相对较低，可以提供强大的预警服务，警告时间可达长达12秒钟，即暴露于修改后的Mercalli量表7.5至8.5之间的人们。
Smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems implemented by citizen science initiatives are characterized by a significant variability in their smartphone network geometry. This has an direct impact on the earthquake detection capability and performance of the system. Here, a simulation framework based on the Monte Carlo method is implemented for making inference on relevant quantities of the earthquake detection such as the detection distance from the epicentre, the detection delay and the warning time for people exposed to high ground shaking levels. The framework is applied to Haiti, which has experienced deadly earthquakes in the past decades, and to the network of the Earthquake Network citizen science initiative, which is popular in the country. It is discovered that relatively low penetrations of the initiative among the population allow to offer a robust early warning service, with warning times up to 12 second for people exposed to intensities between 7.5 and 8.5 of the modified Mercalli scale.
