论文标题
COVID-19期间的车辆使用预测的在线学习模型
Online Learning Models for Vehicle Usage Prediction During COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
如今,正在进行的过渡到更可持续的运输,其中至关重要的是从燃烧发动机车辆到电池电动汽车(BEV)的转变。从可持续性的角度来看,BEV具有许多优势,但是诸如有限的驾驶范围和长期充电时间之类的问题减慢了从燃烧引擎的过渡。缓解这些问题的一种方法是执行电池热预处理,从而提高电池的能源效率。但是,为了最佳地执行电池热预处理,需要知道车辆使用模式,即如何使用车辆。这项研究试图使用在线机器学习模型来预测每天第一次开车的出发时间和距离。对在线机器学习模型进行了培训和评估,并评估了COVID-19大流行期间从BEV舰队收集的历史驾驶数据。此外,扩展了预测模型以量化其预测的不确定性,可用于决定是否应使用或驳回预测。基于我们的结果,预测出发时间时,表现最佳的预测模型在预测出发时间和13.37 km时产生的汇总平均绝对误差为2.75小时。
Today, there is an ongoing transition to more sustainable transportation, for which an essential part is the switch from combustion engine vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). BEVs have many advantages from a sustainability perspective, but issues such as limited driving range and long recharge times slow down the transition from combustion engines. One way to mitigate these issues is by performing battery thermal preconditioning, which increases the energy efficiency of the battery. However, to optimally perform battery thermal preconditioning, the vehicle usage pattern needs to be known, i.e., how and when the vehicle will be used. This study attempts to predict the departure time and distance of the first drive each day using online machine learning models. The online machine learning models are trained and evaluated on historical driving data collected from a fleet of BEVs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the prediction models are extended to quantify the uncertainty of their predictions, which can be used to decide whether the prediction should be used or dismissed. Based on our results, the best-performing prediction models yield an aggregated mean absolute error of 2.75 hours when predicting departure time and 13.37 km when predicting trip distance.