论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
"The sun was darkened for seventeen days (AD 797)". An interdisciplinary exploration of celestial phenomena between Byzantium, Charlemagne, and a volcanic eruption
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
The blinding of the Byzantine Emperor Constantine VI in Constantinople in August 797 and his overthrow by his mother Eirene, who then until 802 ruled as first female emperor of the Eastern Roman Empire, was used as legitimation for the coronation of the Frankish King Charlemagne as emperor of the Romans on December 25, 800, by contemporaries in Western Europe. Some observers in the West may have even interpreted the downfall of the Eastern Roman emperor and his replacement by a woman as sign of an impending collapse of the Roman Empire and the entire world order as already expected, based on chiliastic calculations. We equally find indications of apocalyptic expectations in Constantinople, where the blinding of Constantine was linked with a spectacular celestial manifestation of divine disapproval, a darkening of the sun for 17 days. In this paper, this obfuscation of the sun is compared with the description of other atmospheric and climatic phenomena in the 8th and 9th century as well as before and after this period. In addition, natural scientific data is used to disprove earlier hypotheses on the physical background to this event and to present a more probable scenario, i. e., the impacts of one or more volcanic eruptions, for the darkening of 797 and other phenomena, which provided a peculiar atmospheric framework for the interpretation of the events between the downfall of Constantine VI and the coronation of Charlemagne by contemporaries.
