论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Multi-TeV photons from GRB 221009A: uncertainty of optical depth considered
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
It is reported that the Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO) observed thousands of very-high-energy photons up to $\sim$18 TeV from GRB 221009A. We study the survival rate of these photons via considering the fact that they are absorbed by the extragalactic background light. By performing a set of $10^6$ Monte-Carlo simulations, we explore the parameter space allowed by current observations and estimate the probability of predicting that LHAASO detects at least one photon of 18 TeV from GRB 221009A. We find that the standard physics is compatible with the observations of 18 TeV photons within $3.5σ$ confidence interval. Our research method can be straightforwardly generalized to study more data sets of LHAASO and other experiments in the future.
