论文标题

阻塞的最佳干扰:正压视图

Optimal Disturbances of Blocking: A Barotropic View

论文作者

Shi, Bin, Luo, Dehai, Zhang, Wenqi

论文摘要

在本文中,我们使用条件非线性最佳扰动(CNOP)方法探讨了等效压缩气氛中阻塞的最佳干扰。考虑到最初的阻塞幅度,最佳干扰表现出类似于孤立波的模式。随着尺寸增加,空间模式变得更加集中,并且非线性进化变得更加明显。在进化过程中,它仅着重于逐渐加强没有任何其他影响的阻塞幅度。此外,基于中等范围的实验,时间延迟的最佳干扰似乎会导致更大的错误,从而使预测更具挑战性。考虑到先前存在的天气尺度涡流,最佳干扰显示出浓缩的模式,甚至通过增加大小而更加集中。但是,值得注意的是,与初始阻断幅度的干扰相比,非线性演化发生了重大变化。同时,我们发现,最佳干扰不仅强烈影响阻塞的幅度,而且会影响其形状,从而使涡流紧张和波浪打破更混乱和占主导地位,从而进一步影响了极端天气的发展。这表明,与初始阻止振幅相比,阻塞对先前存在的天气尺度涡流的扰动更为敏感。此外,天气尺度涡流的扰动更有可能导致极端天气的发展,从而使它们降低了。在中等范围的实验中,还发现时间延迟干扰会导致更大的错误,尤其是在衰减期间。最后,我们讨论了西风的变化如何影响空间模式和非线性进化中的最佳干扰以及它们与可预测性的关系。

In this paper, we explore optimal disturbances of blockings in the equivalent barotropic atmosphere using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Considering the initial blocking amplitude, the optimal disturbance exhibits a solitary wave-like pattern. As the size increases incrementally, the spatial pattern becomes more concentrated, and the nonlinear evolution becomes more pronounced. During the evolution, it only focuses on gradually intensifying the blocking amplitude without any other influence. Additionally, based on the medium-range experiments, the time-delay optimal disturbance appears to lead to larger errors, making it more challenging to predict. Considering the preexisting synoptic-scale eddies, the optimal disturbance displays a sharply concentrated pattern, even more concentrated by increasing the size. However, it is worth noting that the nonlinear evolution undergoes significant changes, compared to disturbances of the initial blocking amplitude. Meanwhile, we find that the optimal disturbance not only strongly impacts the amplitude of blockings but also their shape, making eddy straining and wave breaking more chaotic and predominant, further influencing the development of weather extremes. This suggests that blockings are more sensitive to perturbations of preexisting synoptic-scale eddies than initial blocking amplitudes. Furthermore, the perturbations of the synoptic-scale eddies are more likely to lead to the development of weather extremes, making them less predictable. In medium-range experiments, it is also found that time-delay disturbances result in larger errors, particularly during the decay period. Finally, we discuss how the variations of westerly wind influence optimal disturbances in spatial patterns and nonlinear evolution as well as their relation to predictability.

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