论文标题

根据自适应设计估算心理测量功能

Estimating psychometric functions from adaptive designs

论文作者

Kristensen, Simon Bang, Bødkergaard, Katrine, Bibby, Bo Martin

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

An adaptive design adjusts dynamically as information is accrued and a consequence of applying an adaptive design is the potential for inducing small-sample bias in estimates. In psychometrics and psychophysics, a common class of studies investigate a subject's ability to perform a task as a function of the stimulus intensity, meaning the amount or clarity of the information supplied for the task. The relationship between the performance and intensity is represented by a psychometric function. Such experiments routinely apply adaptive designs, which use both previous intensities and performance to assign stimulus intensities, the strategy being to sample intensities where the information about the psychometric function is maximised. Similar schemes are often applied in drug trials to assign doses dynamically using doses and responses from earlier observations. The present paper investigates the influence of adaptation on statistical inference about the psychometric function focusing on estimation, considering both parametric and non-parametric estimation under both fixed and adaptive designs in schemes encompassing within subject independence as well as dependence through random effects. We study the scenarios analytically, focussing on a latent class model to derive results under random effects, and numerically through a simulation study. We show that while the asymptotic properties of estimators are preserved under adaptation, the adaptive nature of the design introduces small-sample bias, in particular in the slope parameter of the psychometric function. We argue that this poses a dilemma for a study applying an adaptive design in the form of a trade-off between more efficient sampling and the need to increase the number of samples to ameliorate small-sample bias.

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