论文标题

拉索·蒙特卡洛(Lasso Monte Carlo),高维不确定性定量的多保真度方法的变化

Lasso Monte Carlo, a Variation on Multi Fidelity Methods for High Dimensional Uncertainty Quantification

论文作者

Albà, Arnau, Boiger, Romana, Rochman, Dimitri, Adelmann, Andreas

论文摘要

不确定性量化(UQ)是一个活跃的研究领域,也是科学和工程领域的必需技术。 UQ的最常见方法是蒙特卡洛和替代模型。前一种方法是独立的维度,但收敛速度缓慢,而后一种方法已证明相对于蒙特卡洛产生了较大的计算加速。但是,替代模型遭受了所谓的维度诅咒,并训练高维问题的昂贵,而在这些问题上可能会在计算上变得过于估算。在本文中,我们提出了一种新技术,拉索·蒙特·卡洛(LMC),该技术将套索替代模型与多量蒙特卡洛技术结合在一起,以降低计算成本,以在高维设置中执行UQ。我们为该方法的无偏见提供了数学保证,并表明LMC比简单的蒙特卡洛更准确。该理论通过基准测试了玩具问题,以及核工程领域的UQ的真实例子。在所有介绍的示例中,LMC比简单的蒙特卡洛和其他多重方法更准确。多亏了LMC,在相关情况下,相对于简单的MC,计算成本降低了5倍以上。

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an active area of research, and an essential technique used in all fields of science and engineering. The most common methods for UQ are Monte Carlo and surrogate-modelling. The former method is dimensionality independent but has slow convergence, while the latter method has been shown to yield large computational speedups with respect to Monte Carlo. However, surrogate models suffer from the so-called curse of dimensionality, and become costly to train for high-dimensional problems, where UQ might become computationally prohibitive. In this paper we present a new technique, Lasso Monte Carlo (LMC), which combines a Lasso surrogate model with the multifidelity Monte Carlo technique, in order to perform UQ in high-dimensional settings, at a reduced computational cost. We provide mathematical guarantees for the unbiasedness of the method, and show that LMC can be more accurate than simple Monte Carlo. The theory is numerically tested with benchmarks on toy problems, as well as on a real example of UQ from the field of nuclear engineering. In all presented examples LMC is more accurate than simple Monte Carlo and other multifidelity methods. Thanks to LMC, computational costs are reduced by more than a factor of 5 with respect to simple MC, in relevant cases.

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