论文标题

本地与统一动态TOBIT模型

The Local to Unity Dynamic Tobit Model

论文作者

Bykhovskaya, Anna, Duffy, James A.

论文摘要

本文考虑了高度持久的时间序列,这些时间序列以审查形式或偶尔结合约束的形式受到非线性,例如在宏观经济学中经常遇到。该系列的可疗法候选模型是具有根部局部到统一性的动态tobit。我们表明,该模型生成了一个弱收敛到非标准限制过程的过程,该过程被限制为正(调节)为正。令人惊讶的是,尽管存在审查,但模型参数的OLS估计器还是一致的。我们表明,这允许根据该过程的整体持久性(按自回旋系数的总和来衡量),并在存在检查的情况下测试单位根的null。我们的模拟说明,当数据是由具有单位根的动态tobit生成的,而我们提出的测试的尺寸正确,则常规ADF测试会大大拒绝。我们在瑞士法郎 /欧元汇率的情况下,在偶尔绑定下限的时期内,我们提供了方法来测试单位根的测试。

This paper considers highly persistent time series that are subject to nonlinearities in the form of censoring or an occasionally binding constraint, such as are regularly encountered in macroeconomics. A tractable candidate model for such series is the dynamic Tobit with a root local to unity. We show that this model generates a process that converges weakly to a non-standard limiting process, that is constrained (regulated) to be positive. Surprisingly, despite the presence of censoring, the OLS estimators of the model parameters are consistent. We show that this allows OLS-based inferences to be drawn on the overall persistence of the process (as measured by the sum of the autoregressive coefficients), and for the null of a unit root to be tested in the presence of censoring. Our simulations illustrate that the conventional ADF test substantially over-rejects when the data is generated by a dynamic Tobit with a unit root, whereas our proposed test is correctly sized. We provide an application of our methods to testing for a unit root in the Swiss franc / euro exchange rate, during a period when this was subject to an occasionally binding lower bound.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源