论文标题
可骑行性和骑自行车的诱发需求
Bikeability and the induced demand for cycling
论文作者
论文摘要
由自行车基础设施提供影响的城市自行车交通量在多大程度上？在这项研究中，我们利用了大量观察到的自行车轨迹的数据集，并结合了哥本哈根与自行车相关网络的细粒度表示。我们将新颖的模型应用于骑自行车的人从原点到目的地的路线选择，该路线已考虑到完整的网络。这使我们能够确定骑自行车的人对一系列基础设施和土地使用类型的偏好。我们使用估计的偏好来计算自行车旅行的主观成本，这与大量原点用途对的自行车旅行数量相关。模拟表明，与没有自行车道网络的反事实相比，广泛的哥本哈根自行车道网络导致自行车旅行的数量分别增加了60％和90％。由于主观旅行成本，健康和事故的变化，这转化为每公里每公里自行车道40万欧元的收益。因此，我们的结果强烈支持提供自行车基础设施。
To what extent is the volume of urban bicycle traffic affected by the provision of bicycle infrastructure? In this study, we exploit a large dataset of observed bicycle trajectories in combination with a fine-grained representation of the Copenhagen bicycle-relevant network. We apply a novel model for bicyclists' choice of route from origin to destination that takes the complete network into account. This enables us to determine bicyclists' preferences for a range of infrastructure and land-use types. We use the estimated preferences to compute a subjective cost of bicycle travel, which we correlate with the number of bicycle trips across a large number of origin-destination pairs. Simulations suggest that the extensive Copenhagen bicycle lane network has caused the number of bicycle trips and the bicycle kilometers traveled to increase by 60% and 90%, respectively, compared with a counterfactual without the bicycle lane network. This translates into an annual benefit of EUR 0.4M per km of bicycle lane owing to changes in subjective travel cost, health, and accidents. Our results thus strongly support the provision of bicycle infrastructure.
