论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

The Impact of Solar Radiation on the Martian Upper Atmosphere

论文作者

Chakravarty, S. C., Nagaraja, Kamsali

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

The first in-situ measurements of the altitude profile of Martian upper atmospheric density and composition were carried out by the Viking lander missions in 1976. The MAVEN and MOM spacecraft launched in September 2014 with mass spectrometers and solar radiation measuring payloads have vastly expanded this initial database. Using a rare set of near-simultaneous data from these two orbiters, we find that there is either an increasing (e.g., for $CO_2$ and $Ar$) or a decreasing (e.g., for $O$) trend of the density profiles by a factor of 2 between June 1 to June 15, 2018, in the height region of $\sim$150-300 km. A time series analysis of the concurrent in-situ solar EUV spectral flux and the $H^+$ ion velocities of the incident solar wind measured near MAVEN periapsis showed the former going through a decrease of only $\sim$10\% compared to the latter's decrease by a factor of 4 within the same non-solar-flare period of observation. The estimates of standard errors and the use of linear regression analysis for the correlation coefficients between densities and solar radiation components have been carried out. Invoking simple photochemical equilibrium conditions with the dissociation of $CO_2$ (producing $CO$ and $O$) through solar EUV radiation and the solar wind $H^+$ ion impact process, the day-to-day variations of these constituents are estimated. The high and significant anti-correlation between the density variations of $CO_2$ and $O$ due to the dissociation of $CO_2$ by the solar wind particle radiation is clearly demonstrated. The cause for the increasing densities of $Ar$ like that of $CO_2$ during this period is more complex and would likely be governed by the temperature variations due to absorption of solar EUV/charged particle radiation and other interacting dynamical effects.

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