论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Neurino Cadence of TXS~0506+056 Consistent with Supermassive Binary Origin
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
On September 18, 2022, an alert by ceCube indicated that a ~170TeV neutrino arrived in directional coincidence with the blazar TXS 0506+056. This event adds to two previous ones: a neutrino alert from its direction on September 22, 2017, and a 3sigma signature of a dozen neutrinos in 2014/2015. deBruijn 2020 showed that these two previous neutrino emission episodes could be due to a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) where jet precession close to final coalescence results in periodic emission. This model predicted a new emission episode consistent with the September 18, 2022 neutrino observation. Here, we show that the neutrino cadence of TXS 0506+056 is consistent with a SMBBH origin with mass ratios q<0.3 for a total black hole mass of M>3e8Msun. For the first time, we calculate the characteristic strain of the gravitational wave emission of the binary, and show that the merger could be detectable by LISA for black hole masses <5e8Msun if the mass ratios are in the range 0.1<q<0.3. We predict that there can be a neutrino flare existing in the still to be analyzed IceCube data peaking some time between 08/2019 and 01/2021 if a precessing jet is responsible for all three detected emission episodes. The next flare is expected to peak in the period 01/2023 to 08/2026. Further observation will make it possible to constrain the mass ratio as a function of the black hole mass more precisely and would open the window toward the preparation of the detection of SMBBH mergers.
