论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Exploration of the effects of epidemics on the regional socio-economics: a modelling approach
论文作者
论文摘要
大流行者除了影响人口健康外,还会对其社会和经济行为产生巨大影响。另一方面,这些因素有可能反馈并影响疾病扩散。重要的是系统地研究这些相互关系,确定哪些相互关系具有重大影响,以及影响是不利还是有益。我们最近开发的流行病模型在本研究中用于基于代理和地理元素。我们对模型的社会经济部分进行了广泛的参数空间探索,包括诸如政府代理人对疾病传播,健康,经济状况和法规的态度(称为价值)之类的因素。我们使用基本分类工具,即自组织地图和主要组件分析,从所得的模拟数据中搜索突出的模式。我们试图隔离影响疾病扩散速度和模式的人口和政府特工的最重要价值参数,并监控不同数量的模型产量,例如感染率,流行病的传播速度,经济活动,政府法规以及人口的遵守情况。在这些中,描述流行病扩散的人导致了数据的最独特聚类,并被选为其余分析的基础。我们将发现的簇与三种不同类型的疾病扩散相关联:波浪状,混乱和过渡性扩散模式。发现导致这些阶段之间阶段变化的最重要的价值参数是人口代理人对政府法规的遵守情况。
Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is important to systematically study these interrelations, to determine which ones have significant effects, and whether the effects are adverse or beneficial. Our recently developed epidemic model with agent-based and geographical elements is used in this study for such a purpose. We perform an extensive parameter space exploration of the socio-economic part of the model, including factors like the attitudes (called values) of the agents towards the disease spreading, health, economic situation, and regulations by government agents. We search for prominent patterns from the resulting simulated data using basic classification tools, namely self-organizing maps and principal component analysis. We seek to isolate the most important value parameters of the population and government agents influencing the disease spreading speed and patterns, and monitor different quantities of the model output, such as infection rates, the propagation speed of the epidemic, economic activity, government regulations, and the compliance of population. Out of these, the ones describing the epidemic spreading were resulting in the most distinctive clustering of the data, and they were selected as the basis of the remaining analysis. We relate the found clusters to three distinct types of disease spreading: wave-like, chaotic, and transitional spreading patterns. The most important value parameter contributing to phase changes between these phases was found to be the compliance of the population agents towards the government regulations.