论文标题

股票回购的自动识别和分类及其对短期,中期和长期收益的影响

Automatic Identification and Classification of Share Buybacks and their Effect on Short-, Mid- and Long-Term Returns

论文作者

Reintjes, Thilo

论文摘要

本文调查了股票回购,特别是分享回购公告。它解决了如何识别此类公告,股票回购的超额回报以及股票回购公告后的回报的预测。我们说明了两种NLP方法,用于自动检测股票回购公告。即使使用少量的培训数据,我们也可以达到高达90%的精度。本文利用这些NLP方法来生成一个由57,155个股票回购公告组成的大数据集。通过分析该数据集,本论文的目的是表明,宣布股票回购的大多数公司的表现不足MSCI世界。但是,少数公司的表现极大地胜过MSCI世界。当观察所有公司的平均值时,这种重要的表现过高会导致净收益。如果根据公司的规模调整了基准指数,则平均表现过高,大多数表现更高。但是,发现宣布股票回购的公司至少占其市值的1%,即使使用调整后的基准,也平均交付了显着的表现。还发现,在危机时期宣布股票回购的公司比整个市场都更好。此外,生成的数据集用于训练72个机器学习模型。通过此,它能够找到许多策略,这些策略最多可以达到77%的准确性并产生大量的超额回报。可以在六个不同的时间范围内改善各种性能指标,并确定明显的表现。这是通过培训多个模型的不同任务和时间范围以及结合这些不同模型的方法来实现的,从而通过融合弱学习者来产生重大改进,以创造一个强大的学习者。

This thesis investigates share buybacks, specifically share buyback announcements. It addresses how to recognize such announcements, the excess return of share buybacks, and the prediction of returns after a share buyback announcement. We illustrate two NLP approaches for the automated detection of share buyback announcements. Even with very small amounts of training data, we can achieve an accuracy of up to 90%. This thesis utilizes these NLP methods to generate a large dataset consisting of 57,155 share buyback announcements. By analyzing this dataset, this thesis aims to show that most companies, which have a share buyback announced are underperforming the MSCI World. A minority of companies, however, significantly outperform the MSCI World. This significant overperformance leads to a net gain when looking at the averages of all companies. If the benchmark index is adjusted for the respective size of the companies, the average overperformance disappears, and the majority underperforms even greater. However, it was found that companies that announce a share buyback with a volume of at least 1% of their market cap, deliver, on average, a significant overperformance, even when using an adjusted benchmark. It was also found that companies that announce share buybacks in times of crisis emerge better than the overall market. Additionally, the generated dataset was used to train 72 machine learning models. Through this, it was able to find many strategies that could achieve an accuracy of up to 77% and generate great excess returns. A variety of performance indicators could be improved across six different time frames and a significant overperformance was identified. This was achieved by training several models for different tasks and time frames as well as combining these different models, generating significant improvement by fusing weak learners, in order to create one strong learner.

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