论文标题
为什么专家提供简单的建议?
Why do experts give simple advice?
论文作者
论文摘要
专家告诉咨询员是要采取可能是好是坏事的行动。他可能会提供采取行动的条件。这种情况可以预测当专家有能力时,并且只有当专家有能力时,该行动是否好。提供条件使专家通过允许咨询者了解其能力,从而暴露了专家的声誉风险。他通过提供条件来摆脱准确的好处和声誉风险。当他的回报足以凹入对他的能力时,他不愿意提供它 - 即提供“简单建议”。
An expert tells an advisee whether to take an action that may be good or bad. He may provide a condition under which to take the action. This condition predicts whether the action is good if and only if the expert is competent. Providing the condition exposes the expert to reputational risk by allowing the advisee to learn about his competence. He trades off the accuracy benefit and reputational risk induced by providing the condition. He prefers not to provide it -- i.e., to give "simple advice" -- when his payoff is sufficiently concave in the posterior belief about his competence.