论文标题
使用颗粒状死亡率数据估算Covid-19的大流行的影响
Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using granular mortality data
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了LI和Lee模型的扩展，以量化Covid-19-19大流行期间五个欧洲国家的死亡率。前两个因素用于对前卵巢死亡率进行建模，第一层对共同趋势进行了建模，而第二层则与国家特定的偏差与共同趋势进行了建模。我们添加了第三层，以捕获2020年Covid-19和2021年的国家特定影响，超过了前循环趋势。我们使用短期死亡率波动数据库中的每周死亡率数据来校准这第三个因素，并且我们使用更详细的数据集用于荷兰的死亡，以评估更详细数据的附加值。我们使用我们的框架来定义死亡率预测基于未来过程的不同情况。
We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend and the second layer the country-specific deviation from the common trend. We add a third layer to capture the country-specific impact of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 in excess of the pre-COVID trend. We use weekly mortality data from the Short Term Mortality Fluctuations Database to calibrate this third factor, and we use a more granular dataset for deaths in the Netherlands to assess the added value of more detailed data. We use our framework to define mortality forecasts based on different possible scenarios for the future course the pandemic.
