论文标题

有些模型很有用,但是我们怎么知道哪些型号?迈向统一的贝叶斯模型分类法

Some models are useful, but how do we know which ones? Towards a unified Bayesian model taxonomy

论文作者

Bürkner, Paul-Christian, Scholz, Maximilian, Radev, Stefan T.

论文摘要

概率(贝叶斯)建模在几乎所有定量科学和工业领域都经历了大量的应用。这种开发是由多种因素组合驱动的,包括更好的概率估计算法,灵活的软件,增加的计算能力以及对概率学习益处的越来越认识。但是,原则上的贝叶斯模型建设工作流程远非完整,并且仍然存在许多挑战。为了帮助原则上的贝叶斯工作流的未来研究和应用,我们询问并为我们认为是贝叶斯建模的两个基本问题的答案,即(a)“实际上是什么是贝叶斯模型?” (b)“是什么使好贝叶斯模型?”。作为第一个问题的答案,我们提出了定义四种基本类型的贝叶斯模型的PAD模型分类学,每个模型都代表所有(已知或未知)变量(P),后近近似值(A)和训练数据(D)的所有(已知或未知)变量的某种组合。作为第二个问题的答案,我们提出了十个效用维度,根据该维度,我们可以从整体上评估贝叶斯模型,即(1)因果一致性,(2)参数可恢复性,(3)预测性能,(4)公平性,(5)结构忠诚度,(5)结构性的忠诚度,(6)Parimimony,(6)Parsimimony,(6)解释性,(7)解释性,(8)rob forepenty速度,(9)估算,(9)估算。此外,我们提出了两个示例公用事业决策树,它们根据推动模型构建和测试的推论目标,描述公用事业之间的层次结构和权衡。

Probabilistic (Bayesian) modeling has experienced a surge of applications in almost all quantitative sciences and industrial areas. This development is driven by a combination of several factors, including better probabilistic estimation algorithms, flexible software, increased computing power, and a growing awareness of the benefits of probabilistic learning. However, a principled Bayesian model building workflow is far from complete and many challenges remain. To aid future research and applications of a principled Bayesian workflow, we ask and provide answers for what we perceive as two fundamental questions of Bayesian modeling, namely (a) "What actually is a Bayesian model?" and (b) "What makes a good Bayesian model?". As an answer to the first question, we propose the PAD model taxonomy that defines four basic kinds of Bayesian models, each representing some combination of the assumed joint distribution of all (known or unknown) variables (P), a posterior approximator (A), and training data (D). As an answer to the second question, we propose ten utility dimensions according to which we can evaluate Bayesian models holistically, namely, (1) causal consistency, (2) parameter recoverability, (3) predictive performance, (4) fairness, (5) structural faithfulness, (6) parsimony, (7) interpretability, (8) convergence, (9) estimation speed, and (10) robustness. Further, we propose two example utility decision trees that describe hierarchies and trade-offs between utilities depending on the inferential goals that drive model building and testing.

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