论文标题

大脑排水的数字痕迹:俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间的开发人员

Digital Traces of Brain Drain: Developers during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

论文作者

Wachs, Johannes

论文摘要

俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵造成了大规模的破坏,巨大的生命丧失以及数百万人口的流离失所。除了逃离乌克兰直接冲突的人外,俄罗斯的许多人也被认为已迁至第三国。特别是,从俄罗斯出发,熟练的人力资本的出埃及从俄罗斯出发,从长远来看可能会对战争和俄罗斯经济产生重大影响。然而,量化大脑流失,尤其是在危机情况下,通常很困难。这阻碍了我们了解其驱动因素并预测其后果的能力。为了解决这一差距,我利用并扩展了2021年2月(在入侵前一年)收集的高度活跃软件开发人员位置的大规模数据集。重新审视了2021年在俄罗斯的开发商,我证实了俄罗斯的开发商正在进行的逃亡,该开发商是在2022年6月和2022年11月拍摄的快照中。到11.11.1%的俄罗斯开发商列出了一个新国家,而该地区的2.8%的开发商来自该地区可比国家,但不直接参与冲突。 13.2%的俄罗斯开发商掩盖了其位置(比较集中的2.4%)。离开俄罗斯的开发商在协作网络中比留下的开发商更加积极和中心。这表明许多最重要的开发商已经离开了俄罗斯。在某些接收国家中,到达的数量很大:我估计,亚美尼亚42%的本地软件开发商数量增加,塞浦路斯有60%,佐治亚州的94%增加。

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused large scale destruction, significant loss of life, and the displacement of millions of people. Besides those fleeing direct conflict in Ukraine, many individuals in Russia are also thought to have moved to third countries. In particular the exodus of skilled human capital, sometimes called brain drain, out of Russia may have a significant effect on the course of the war and the Russian economy in the long run. Yet quantifying brain drain, especially during crisis situations is generally difficult. This hinders our ability to understand its drivers and to anticipate its consequences. To address this gap, I draw on and extend a large scale dataset of the locations of highly active software developers collected in February 2021, one year before the invasion. Revisiting those developers that had been located in Russia in 2021, I confirm an ongoing exodus of developers from Russia in snapshots taken in June and November 2022. By November 11.1% of Russian developers list a new country, compared with 2.8% of developers from comparable countries in the region but not directly involved in the conflict. 13.2% of Russian developers have obscured their location (vs. 2.4% in the comparison set). Developers leaving Russia were significantly more active and central in the collaboration network than those who remain. This suggests that many of the most important developers have already left Russia. In some receiving countries the number of arrivals is significant: I estimate an increase in the number of local software developers of 42% in Armenia, 60% in Cyprus and 94% in Georgia.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源