论文标题
通过通用添加剂模型来监视浸没浅滩的模型贝叶斯设计
Model-robust Bayesian design through Generalised Additive Models for monitoring submerged shoals
论文作者
论文摘要
最佳抽样策略对于对更深的珊瑚礁和浅滩系统的调查至关重要,因为访问和现场采样这些遥远和知识了解的生态系统的巨大成本。此外,在浅礁系统中使用的基于标准的潜水员采样技术无法由于水深而部署。在这里,我们制定了贝叶斯设计策略,以使用三年的试点数据来优化浅滩深礁系统的采样。通常是通过最大化参数的关节分布和在假定的统计模型上条件的响应条件来找到贝叶斯设计的。不幸的是,指定这种模型先验很困难,因为对数据生成过程的了解通常不完整。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种方法,可以找到对未知模型不确定性稳健的贝叶斯设计。这是通过在通用的加性建模框架中添加指定模型来实现的,并制定了先验信息,该信息允许添加剂组件捕获假定的数据和基础数据生成过程之间的差异。这样做的动机是使贝叶斯设计在认知模型的不确定性下找到。贝叶斯设计的非常理想的特性。最初,我们的方法在示例设计问题上得到了证明,其中得出理论结果并用于探索最佳设计的属性。然后,我们采用我们的方法来设计对澳大利亚西北海岸的亚合并浅滩的未来监测,目的是显着改善当前的监测设计。
Optimal sampling strategies are critical for surveys of deeper coral reef and shoal systems, due to the significant cost of accessing and field sampling these remote and poorly understood ecosystems. Additionally, well-established standard diver-based sampling techniques used in shallow reef systems cannot be deployed because of water depth. Here we develop a Bayesian design strategy to optimise sampling for a shoal deep reef system using three years of pilot data. Bayesian designs are generally found by maximising the expectation of a utility function with respect to the joint distribution of the parameters and the response conditional on an assumed statistical model. Unfortunately, specifying such a model a priori is difficult as knowledge of the data generating process is typically incomplete. To address this, we present an approach to find Bayesian designs that are robust to unknown model uncertainty. This is achieved through couching the specified model within a Generalised Additive Modelling framework and formulating prior information that allows the additive component to capture discrepancies between what is assumed and the underlying data generating process. The motivation for this is to enable Bayesian designs to be found under epistemic model uncertainty; a highly desirable property of Bayesian designs. Our approach is demonstrated initially on an exemplar design problem where a theoretic result is derived and used to explore the properties of optimal designs. We then apply our approach to design future monitoring of sub-merged shoals off the north-west coast of Australia with the aim of significantly improving on current monitoring designs.