论文标题
全球沿海地区热带气旋快速加强的最新增加
Recent Increase of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Global Coastal Regions
论文作者
论文摘要
快速强化（RI）可能是强大的热带气旋发展和预测错误的最大来源，导致对生命和财产的巨大威胁，这可能会变得更具威胁性，这可能会变得更加威胁，这可能会变得更加威胁。尽管巨大的努力致力于研究盆地范围的波动，但全球RI事件的时间空间变化仍然不确定。在这里，我们表明，与一年一度的RI计数没有显示任何重大变化相比，距离海岸线400公里以内的沿海离岸区域明显更多的RI事件，RI计数从1980年到2020年。从1980年到2020年。负责沿海RI发生的原因，分析了主要的大型环境识别。这项工作产生了一个重要的新发现，即在过去的几十年中发生了沿海地区的RI威胁越来越大，这可能会在未来的变暖气候中持续下去。
Rapid intensification (RI) is likely the most crucial contributor to the development of strong tropical cyclones and the largest source of prediction error resulting in great threats to life and property, which can become more threatening with proximity to landfall. While enormous efforts have been devoted to studying the basin-wide fluctuation, temporal-spatial variations of global RI events remain uncertain. Here, we show that, compared with open oceans where the annual RI counts do not show any significant change, the coastal offshore regions within 400 km from the coastline host significantly more RI events, with the RI count tripled from 1980 to 2020. Reasons responsible for the coastal RI occurrence are analysed, with the dominant large-scale environmental factors identified. This work yields an important new finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue in a future warming climate.
