论文标题
AA-Forecast:极端事件的异常预测
AA-Forecast: Anomaly-Aware Forecast for Extreme Events
论文作者
论文摘要
时间序列模型通常处理极端事件和异常,这两者都在实际数据集中流行。这样的模型通常需要提供仔细的概率预测,这对于诸如飓风和大流行等极端事件的风险管理至关重要。但是,自动检测并学习对大规模数据集使用极端事件和异常,这通常是一项挑战,这通常需要手动努力。因此,我们提出了一个异常的预测框架,该框架利用了先前看到的异常作用来提高其在极端事件存在期间和之后的预测准确性。具体而言,该框架会自动提取异常,并通过注意机制将其整合起来,以提高其对未来极端事件的准确性。此外,该框架采用了动态的不确定性优化算法,以在线方式降低预测的不确定性。所提出的框架表现出一致的卓越精度,而三个数据集的不确定性较少,而异常的三个数据集则与当前预测模型相比。
Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as hurricanes and pandemics. However, it is challenging to automatically detect and learn to use extreme events and anomalies for large-scale datasets, which often require manual effort. Hence, we propose an anomaly-aware forecast framework that leverages the previously seen effects of anomalies to improve its prediction accuracy during and after the presence of extreme events. Specifically, the framework automatically extracts anomalies and incorporates them through an attention mechanism to increase its accuracy for future extreme events. Moreover, the framework employs a dynamic uncertainty optimization algorithm that reduces the uncertainty of forecasts in an online manner. The proposed framework demonstrated consistent superior accuracy with less uncertainty on three datasets with different varieties of anomalies over the current prediction models.