论文标题

使用量子决策理论对人类传感器系统的最快检测

Quickest Detection for Human-Sensor Systems using Quantum Decision Theory

论文作者

Snow, Luke, Krishnamurthy, Vikram, Sadler, Brian M.

论文摘要

在数学心理学中,针对人类决策的最新模型使用量子决策理论来捕获重要的以人为中心的特征,例如秩序效应和违反确定性原则(总概率法)。我们构建和分析人类传感器系统,其中最快的检测器旨在通过观察受国家影响的人类决策来检测基本状态的变化。 除了为这种人类传感器系统提供分析框架外,我们还分析了最快的检测政策的结构。我们表明,最快的检测策略具有单个阈值,最佳成本由经典最快检测器的限制。这表明中间的人类决策严格阻碍了检测绩效。我们还分析了最快的检测成本对人类决策者的量子决策参数的敏感性,表明该绩效对于对决策过程的知识不准确。提供了数值结果,这表明观察更合理的决策者的决策将改善最快的检测性能。最后,我们说明了在囚犯的困境问题的背景下,该最快探测器的数值实施,在这种情况下,人们观察到量子决策理论可以唯一地模拟经验测试的违反对确定原则的侵犯。

In mathematical psychology, recent models for human decision-making use Quantum Decision Theory to capture important human-centric features such as order effects and violation of the sure-thing principle (total probability law). We construct and analyze a human-sensor system where a quickest detector aims to detect a change in an underlying state by observing human decisions that are influenced by the state. Apart from providing an analytical framework for such human-sensor systems, we also analyze the structure of the quickest detection policy. We show that the quickest detection policy has a single threshold and the optimal cost incurred is lower bounded by that of the classical quickest detector. This indicates that intermediate human decisions strictly hinder detection performance. We also analyze the sensitivity of the quickest detection cost with respect to the quantum decision parameters of the human decision maker, revealing that the performance is robust to inaccurate knowledge of the decision-making process. Numerical results are provided which suggest that observing the decisions of more rational decision makers will improve the quickest detection performance. Finally, we illustrate a numerical implementation of this quickest detector in the context of the Prisoner's Dilemma problem, in which it has been observed that Quantum Decision Theory can uniquely model empirically tested violations of the sure-thing principle.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源