论文标题
对大西洋热带气旋的损害赔偿的预测：一项分层贝叶斯研究
Predictions of damages from Atlantic tropical cyclones: a hierarchical Bayesian study on extremes
论文作者
论文摘要
提出了贝叶斯分层模型，用于建模热带气旋特征及其在大西洋盆地的损伤潜力。我们在两个不同的时间尺度下对热带气旋特征的关节概率分布及其损伤潜力进行了建模，同时考虑了几个气候指数。首先，开发了整个季节的预测模型，该模型预测将发生的气旋事件的数量，每种旋风造成一定损害的可能性以及损害的货币化值。然后，认为单个旋风的特定特征被认为可以预测其将造成的损害的货币化值。进行了鲁棒性研究，并在不同的数据科学模型和评估技术中证明了出色的预测能力。
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential at two different temporal scales, while taking several climate indices into account. First, a predictive model for an entire season is developed that forecasts the number of cyclone events that will take place, the probability of each cyclone causing some amount of damage, and the monetized value of damages. Then, specific characteristics of individual cyclones are considered to predict the monetized value of the damage it will cause. Robustness studies are conducted and excellent prediction power is demonstrated across different data science models and evaluation techniques.
