论文标题
尺寸重要：在运输学术文献中离散选择模型中统计意义的使用和滥用
Size Matters: The Use and Misuse of Statistical Significance in Discrete Choice Models in the Transportation Academic Literature
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们回顾了2014年至2018年之间发表的学术运输文献，以评估在经验分析中使用和滥用统计意义的领域，重点是离散选择模型。我们的结果表明，有39％的研究仅根据系数的迹象解释了模型结果，其中67％的研究没有区分统计意义与经济，政策或科学意义的结论，并且综述的研究都没有考虑测试的统计能力。基于这些结果，我们提出了一系列建议，旨在将重点从统计意义转移到适当和全面的效果量和其他政策相关数量的评估。
In this paper we review the academic transportation literature published between 2014 and 2018 to evaluate where the field stands regarding the use and misuse of statistical significance in empirical analysis, with a focus on discrete choice models. Our results show that 39% of studies explained model results exclusively based on the sign of the coefficient, 67% of studies did not distinguish statistical significance from economic, policy or scientific significance in their conclusions, and none of the reviewed studies considered the statistical power of the tests. Based on these results we put forth a set of recommendations aimed at shifting the focus away from statistical significance towards proper and comprehensive assessment of effect magnitudes and other policy relevant quantities.
