论文标题
等级贝叶斯数据选择
Hierarchical Bayesian data selection
论文作者
论文摘要
尝试从数据推断模型参数时可能会引起问题。数据和模型都是不完美的,因此在多种情况下,标准的推理方法将导致误导性结论。损坏的数据,仅代表数据子集的模型或使用不同参数最适合模型的多个区域。存在排除某些异常数据的方法,但实际上,在尝试将模型拟合到数据之前,通常是手动进行数据清洁的。在这项工作中,我们将采用分层贝叶斯数据选择;两个模型参数的同时推断,以及我们相信数据中的每个观察值都应包括在推理中。在贝叶斯环境中,目的是找到模型可以很好地陈述数据的观测区域,并找到这些区域的相应模型参数。将探索许多方法,并应用于线性回归中的测试问题,以及通过有限差方法近似的拟合ODE模型的问题。这些方法易于实现,可以帮助将马尔可夫连锁店的混合融合,该连锁链旨在从呈现的密度中采样,并且广泛适用于许多推论问题。
There are many issues that can cause problems when attempting to infer model parameters from data. Data and models are both imperfect, and as such there are multiple scenarios in which standard methods of inference will lead to misleading conclusions; corrupted data, models which are only representative of subsets of the data, or multiple regions in which the model is best fit using different parameters. Methods exist for the exclusion of some anomalous types of data, but in practice, data cleaning is often undertaken by hand before attempting to fit models to data. In this work, we will employ hierarchical Bayesian data selection; the simultaneous inference of both model parameters, and parameters which represent our belief that each observation within the data should be included in the inference. The aim, within a Bayesian setting, is to find the regions of observation space for which the model can well-represent the data, and to find the corresponding model parameters for those regions. A number of approaches will be explored, and applied to test problems in linear regression, and to the problem of fitting an ODE model, approximated by a finite difference method. The approaches are simple to implement, can aid mixing of Markov chains designed to sample from the arising densities, and are broadly applicable to many inferential problems.