论文标题
不完美的疫苗,疫苗权衡和人口流动对传染病动态的影响
Impact of imperfect vaccine, vaccine trade-off and population turnover on infectious disease dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
疫苗接种对于管理传染病至关重要,其中许多疾病仍在全世界造成毁灭性的公共卫生和经济挑战。但是,许多疫苗在减少疾病传播和/或有利于恢复感染者的恢复以及这两种特性之间的权衡方面仅具有部分保护作用。此外,人口离职,即个人进入和退出人口的速度,是确定流行病学动态的另一个关键因素。尽管这些因素尚未分别研究,但我们研究了不完善的疫苗和人口周转的效率和性质之间的相互作用。我们建立了一个数学模型,以频率发生率,一个回收的隔室以及相对于疫苗接种的异质宿主种群。我们首先计算基本的繁殖编号$ \ MATHCAL {R} _0 $并研究平衡点的全局稳定性。然后,使用灵敏度分析,我们评估确定感染总数和$ \ MATHCAL {R} _0 $的最有影响力的参数。我们在分析和数值条件下为疫苗接种覆盖率和效率提供了消除疾病($ \ Mathcal {r} _0 <1 $),假设人口周转强度(弱和强),疫苗特性(传播和/或恢复)以及后者之间的权衡。我们表明,随着人口流动较低的降低,最小疫苗接种覆盖率增加,随着疫苗效率的较高(传输或恢复)的降低,并且根据疫苗特性之间的权衡,增加/减少了15 \%。我们得出的结论是,应根据这些因素之间的相互作用评估疫苗接种运动的覆盖范围目标。
Vaccination is essential for the management of infectious diseases, many of which continue to pose devastating public health and economic challenges across the world. However, many vaccines are imperfect having only a partial protective effect in decreasing disease transmission and/or favouring recovery of infected individuals, and possibly exhibiting trade-off between these two properties. Furthermore, population turnover, that is the rate at which individuals enter and exit the population, is another key factor determining the epidemiological dynamics. While these factors have yet been studied separately, we investigate the interplay between the efficiency and property of an imperfect vaccine and population turnover. We build a mathematical model with frequency incidence rate, a recovered compartment, and an heterogeneous host population with respect to vaccination. We first compute the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and study the global stability of the equilibrium points. Using a sensitivity analysis, we then assess the most influential parameters determining the total number of infected and $\mathcal{R}_0$ over time. We derive analytically and numerically conditions for the vaccination coverage and efficiency to achieve disease eradication ($\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$) assuming different intensity of the population turnover (weak and strong), vaccine properties (transmission and/or recovery) and trade-off between the latter. We show that the minimum vaccination coverage increases with lower population turnover, decreases with higher vaccine efficiency (transmission or recovery), and is increased/decreased by up to 15\% depending on the trade-off between the vaccine properties. We conclude that the coverage target for vaccination campaigns should be evaluated based on the interplay between these factors.