论文标题
网络经济体的风险
Risk in Network Economies
论文作者
论文摘要
具有投入输出网络的经济模型假设公司或部门(单位)的增长是由贸易伙伴的增长和独立的特质冲击驱动的。我表明,广泛的网络模型中的特质风险假设隐含地对网络权重限制了不现实的限制。当允许相关的冲击时,单位暴露于额外的风险术语,该术语捕获了替代通过网络传播的供应和需求冲击的能力。我提供了经验证据,表明贸易伙伴之间的替代性变化与已实现的行业差异小组的变化成反比。此外,我发现供应侧(需求端)的替代性与单位供应商(客户)的技术(产品)分散密切相关。为了综合这些结果,我提出了一个基于生产的资产定价模型,在该模型中,供应链可替代性是产品/技术空间中分散的函数,而供求冲击中的相关性是由公司之间的共享客户和供应商驱动的。该模型预测,积极暴露于上游和下游冲击的平均传播的资产是有用的树篱,因此获得了较低的平均风险溢价。一致地,我发现估计的上游(下游)传播因素获得了-11.4%(-4.2%)的回报率,并且与总消费,产出和股息增长有负相关。
Economic models with input-output networks assume that firm or sector (unit) growth is driven by a weighted sum of trade partners' growth and an independently-drawn idiosyncratic shock. I show that the idiosyncratic risk assumption in a broad class of network models implicitly generates restrictions on the network weights which are unrealistic. When allowing for correlated shocks, units are exposed to an additional risk term which captures the ability to substitute away from supply and demand shocks propagating through the network. I provide empirical evidence that changes in substitutability between trade partners are inversely related to changes in the panel of realized industry variance. Moreover, I find that supply-side (demand-side) substitutability is closely related to technological (product) dispersion of a unit's suppliers (customers). To synthesize these results, I propose a production-based asset pricing model in which supply chain substitutability is a function of dispersion in product/technology space and correlation in supply and demand shocks is driven by shared customers and suppliers between firms. The model predicts that assets which are positively exposed to average propagation of upstream and downstream shocks are useful hedges and thus earn lower average risk premia. Consistently, I find that estimated upstream (downstream) propagation factors earn return spreads of -11.4% (-4.2%) and are negatively associated with aggregate consumption, output, and dividend growth.