论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Robust Calibration of Deep Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,我们研究了现代神经网络的事后校准,这个问题近年来引起了很多关注。已经为任务提出了许多不同复杂性的校准方法,但是关于这些任务的表达方式尚无共识。我们专注于置信度缩放的任务,特别是在概括温度缩放的事后方法上,我们将其称为自适应温度缩放家族。我们分析了改善校准并提出可解释方法的表达功能。我们表明,当有大量数据复杂模型(例如神经网络)产生更好的性能时,但是当数据量受到限制时,很容易失败,这是某些事后校准应用(例如医疗诊断)的常见情况。我们研究表达方法在理想条件和设计更简单的方法下学习但对这些表现良好的功能具有强烈的感应偏见的功能。具体而言,我们提出了基于熵的温度缩放,这是一种简单的方法,可以根据其熵缩放预测的置信度。结果表明,与其他方法相比,我们的方法可获得最先进的性能,并且与复杂模型不同,它对数据稀缺是可靠的。此外,我们提出的模型可以更深入地解释校准过程。
In this paper, we study the post-hoc calibration of modern neural networks, a problem that has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. Many calibration methods of varying complexity have been proposed for the task, but there is no consensus about how expressive these should be. We focus on the task of confidence scaling, specifically on post-hoc methods that generalize Temperature Scaling, we call these the Adaptive Temperature Scaling family. We analyse expressive functions that improve calibration and propose interpretable methods. We show that when there is plenty of data complex models like neural networks yield better performance, but are prone to fail when the amount of data is limited, a common situation in certain post-hoc calibration applications like medical diagnosis. We study the functions that expressive methods learn under ideal conditions and design simpler methods but with a strong inductive bias towards these well-performing functions. Concretely, we propose Entropy-based Temperature Scaling, a simple method that scales the confidence of a prediction according to its entropy. Results show that our method obtains state-of-the-art performance when compared to others and, unlike complex models, it is robust against data scarcity. Moreover, our proposed model enables a deeper interpretation of the calibration process.