论文标题
建模栖息地重叠在大黄石生态系统中布鲁氏菌病的传播中的作用
Modeling the Role that Habitat Overlap Shape has on the Spread of Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
论文作者
论文摘要
布鲁塞尔病是一种动物的人畜共科传染病，影响牲畜和野生动植物。大黄石生态系统是美国定期感染牛的最后一个地区。即使牲畜接种疫苗，与储层物种的相互作用仍会导致牛的溢出病例。美国国家科学院，工程和医学学院表示，建模工作应集中在麋鹿和牛之间的传播上，并应进行更好地了解土地利用变化和景观配置对疾病风险的影响。本章确定了景观的配置如何利用麋鹿和牛之间的栖息地重叠的形状和数量，促进了跨物种的布鲁氏菌病传播，以及土地使用变化如何转化为疾病的流行。数学流行病学模型与景观生态指标相结合，以估计物种和模型疾病扩散之间的传播率。这项研究的结果最终可以帮助利益相关者制定政策，以控制大黄石地区牲畜和麋鹿之间的布鲁氏菌病的传播。反过来，这可能导致疾病患病率较小，降低相关成本并协助人口管理。
Brucellosis is a zoonotic bacterial infectious disease that affects livestock and wildlife. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is the last area in the United States where cattle are regularly infected with brucellosis. Even though livestock are vaccinated, interactions with reservoir species still result in spill-over cases to cattle. The National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has indicated that modeling efforts should focus on the transmission between elk and cattle and should be conducted to better understand the effects of land-use change and landscape configuration on disease risk. This chapter determines how the landscape's configuration, using the shape and amount of habitat overlap between elk and cattle, contributes to cross-species brucellosis transmission, and how land-use change translates to disease prevalence. A mathematical-epidemiological model is combined with landscape ecology metrics to estimate transmission rates between the species and model disease spread. The results of this study can ultimately help stakeholders develop policy for controlling brucellosis transmission between livestock and elk in the Greater Yellowstone Area. In turn, this could lead to less disease prevalence, reduce associated costs, and assist in population management.
