论文标题
加上Gnevyshev-Ohl规则和太阳周期的预测25
Addition to the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule and prediction of solar cycle 25
论文作者
论文摘要
除了Gnevyshev-Ohl规则（GOR）外，还发现了奇数周期与随后的22年Hale太阳周期中的一个关系。结果表明，在11年最低$ m $的3年前，奇数周期中相对太阳点数sn的值与下一个偶数周期中的最大值（相关系数$ρ= 0.94 $）密切相关，而奇数周期与上一个奇数的关系相同。像戈尔一样，循环成对链接，但与规则相反。 基于此结果，我们建议在上一个奇数周期的下降阶段使用Sn $ _ {M-3} $作为后续偶数周期的前体（图3A） - 一种称为MI3E的前体。为了预测奇数周期或预测而不考虑奇偶校验（如Brajša等人，2022年的文章中），此方法给出了较不可靠的结果。 为了预测一个奇数周期的幅度，我们建议将第七年的前体在上一个偶数周期的下降阶段使用第七年的最大$ m $ ma7o-sn $ _ {m-7} $（图3B）。事实证明，在这种情况下，我们还可以通过高相关系数（$ρ= 0.90 { - } 0.94 $）预测最大年份。 因此，提出的方法使我们能够预测不同奇偶校验的周期。根据我们的预测，当前的太阳周期25在2023年将达到154个单位，预测误差为$ \ pm25 $（68％的信心）和$ \ pm53 $（95％的信心）。在2024年，SN几乎将与2023年 - 147个单位一样高，因此，在平均时间较小的情况下，最大值将在2023年底下降。
In addition to the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (GOR), the relation of the odd cycle with the subsequent even one in the 22-year Hale solar cycle was found. It is shown that 3 years before the 11-year minimum $m$, the value of the relative sunspot number SN in an odd cycle is closely related to the value of the maximum in the next even cycle (correlation coefficient $ρ=0.94$), and the same relation of an odd cycle with the previous even one is weaker. Like GOR, cycles are linked in pairs, but opposite to the Rule. Based on this result, we propose to use SN$_{m-3}$ on the descending phase of the previous odd cycle as a precursor of the subsequent EVEN cycle (Figure 3a) -- a precursor called MI3E. For the prediction of an odd cycle or a prediction without consideration of parity (as in the article by Brajša et al., 2022), this method gives less reliable results. To predict the amplitude of an ODD cycle, we propose to use the precursor of the seventh year to its maximum $M$ MA7O -- SN$_{M-7}$ on the descending phase of the previous even cycle (Figure 3b). It turned out that in this case, we can also predict the years near the maximum with a high correlation coefficient ($ρ=0.90{-}0.94$). Thus, the proposed approaches allow us to predict cycles of different parity. According to our prediction, the current solar Cycle 25 in 2023 will reach a maximum of 154 units with a prediction error of $\pm25$ (68% confidence) and $\pm53$ (95% confidence). In 2024, SN will be almost as high as in 2023 -- 147 units, so with smaller time averaging scales, the maximum will fall at the end of 2023.
