论文标题
贝叶斯估计游戏中主队赢得I级FBS大学橄榄球的可能性
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for Division-I FBS college football
论文作者
论文摘要
Maddox等。 [9，10]建立贝叶斯方法，用于估计大学和NBA篮球比赛的胜利概率。本文介绍了一种贝叶斯的方法，用于估计I级FBS学院（美国）足球比赛中的赢得胜利概率，该方法使用剩余的剩余财产数量和预期得分作为两个预测因素。呈现并比较用于估计这些模型。这些以及其他预测因子将被引入两种贝叶斯方法，以最终估算游戏中胜利的概率。为了说明公用事业，方法适用于贝勒和俄克拉荷马州立大学之间的2021年大XII会议足球锦标赛。
Maddox, et al. [9, 10] establish Bayesian methods for estimating home-team in-game win probability for college and NBA basketball. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for estimating in-game home-team win probability for Division-I FBS college (American) football that uses expected number of remaining possessions and expected score as two predictors. Models for estimating these are presented and compared. These, along with other predictors are introduced into two Bayesian approaches for the final estimate of in-game home-team win probability. To illustrate utility, methods are applied to the 2021 Big XII Conference Football Championship game between Baylor and Oklahoma State.
