论文标题

定量股票投资通过路由不确定性感知交易专家:一种多任务学习方法

Quantitative Stock Investment by Routing Uncertainty-Aware Trading Experts: A Multi-Task Learning Approach

论文作者

Sun, Shuo, Wang, Rundong, An, Bo

论文摘要

定量投资是一项基本的财务任务,高度依赖于准确的股票预测和盈利的投资决策。尽管最新的深度学习进展(DL)在捕获随机股票市场的交易机会方面表现出出色的表现,但我们观察到现有DL方法的性能对随机种子和网络初始化敏感。为了设计更多有利可图的DL方法,我们分析了这种现象,并找到了现有作品的两个主要局限性。首先,准确的财务预测与盈利投资策略之间存在明显的差距。其次,投资决策仅基于一个单独的预测指标做出,而无需考虑模型不确定性,这与现实世界贸易公司的工作流程不一致。为了应对这两个局限性,我们首先将定量投资作为多任务学习问题进行了重新重新重新制定。后来,我们提出了Alphamix,这是一种新型的两阶段专家(MOE)框架,用于定量投资,以模仿成功的贸易公司的有效自下而上的交易策略设计工作流程。在第一阶段,多个独立的交易专家通过个人不确定性感知损失函数共同优化。在第二阶段,我们训练神经路由器(与投资组合经理的角色相对应),以在需要的基础上动态部署这些专家。 Alphamix也是一个通用框架,适用于具有一致性增长的各种骨干网络体系结构。通过对两个最具影响力的金融市场(美国和中国)的长期现实数据的广泛实验,我们证明,根据四个金融标准,Alphamix的表现明显优于许多最先进的基线。

Quantitative investment is a fundamental financial task that highly relies on accurate stock prediction and profitable investment decision making. Despite recent advances in deep learning (DL) have shown stellar performance on capturing trading opportunities in the stochastic stock market, we observe that the performance of existing DL methods is sensitive to random seeds and network initialization. To design more profitable DL methods, we analyze this phenomenon and find two major limitations of existing works. First, there is a noticeable gap between accurate financial predictions and profitable investment strategies. Second, investment decisions are made based on only one individual predictor without consideration of model uncertainty, which is inconsistent with the workflow in real-world trading firms. To tackle these two limitations, we first reformulate quantitative investment as a multi-task learning problem. Later on, we propose AlphaMix, a novel two-stage mixture-of-experts (MoE) framework for quantitative investment to mimic the efficient bottom-up trading strategy design workflow of successful trading firms. In Stage one, multiple independent trading experts are jointly optimized with an individual uncertainty-aware loss function. In Stage two, we train neural routers (corresponding to the role of a portfolio manager) to dynamically deploy these experts on an as-needed basis. AlphaMix is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone network architectures with consistent performance gains. Through extensive experiments on long-term real-world data spanning over five years on two of the most influential financial markets (US and China), we demonstrate that AlphaMix significantly outperforms many state-of-the-art baselines in terms of four financial criteria.

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