论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Analysis of risk propagation using the world trade network
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
An economic system is an exemplar of a complex system in which all agents interact simultaneously. Interactions between countries have generally been studied using the flow of resources across diverse trade networks, in which the degree of dependence between two countries is typically measured based on the trade volume. However, indirect influences may not be immediately apparent. Herein, we compared a direct trade network to a trade network constructed using the personalized PageRank (PPR) encompassing indirect influences. By analyzing the correlation of the gross domestic product (GDP) between countries, we discovered that the PPR trade network has greater explanatory power on the propagation of economic events than direct trade by analyzing the GDP correlation between countries. To further validate our observations, an agent-based model of the spreading economic crisis was implemented for the Russia-Ukraine war of 2022. The model also demonstrates that the PPR explains the actual impact more effectively than the direct trade network. Our research highlights the significance of indirect and long-range relationships, which have often been overlooked
