论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Hidden Markov model analysis for fluorescent time series of quantum dots
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We present a hidden Markov model analysis for fluorescent time series of quantum dots. A fundamental quantity to measure optical performance of the quantum dots is a distribution function for the light-emission duration. So far, to estimate it, a threshold value for the fluorescent intensity was introduced, and the light-emission state was evaluated as a state above the threshold. With this definition, the light-emission duration was estimated, and its distribution function was derived as a blinking plot. Due to the noise in the fluorescent data, however, this treatment generates a large number of artificially short-lived emission states, thus leading to an erroneous blinking plot. In the present paper, we propose a hidden Markov model to eliminate these artifacts. The hidden Markov model introduces a hidden variable specifying the light-emission and quenching states behind the observed fluorescence. We found that it is possible to avoid the above artifacts by identifying the state from the hidden-variable time series. We found that, from the analysis of experimental and theoretical benchmark data, the accuracy of our hidden Markov model is beyond human cognitive ability.
