论文标题
流动性在Andalusia Covid-19动力学中的作用
The role of mobility in the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Andalusia
论文作者
论文摘要
群众模型一直是研究流行病的流行工具，该工具在人口稠密的节点（城市，省份，国家）网络上进行了广泛使用，并已在正在进行的Covid-19大流行的背景下被广泛使用。在目前的工作中，我们重新审视了一个特定案例的示例，即在2020年夏季下游时（即在第一和第二大流行波之间），即西班牙安达卢西亚地区的模型。我们的目的是考虑在整个省级节点上纳入移动性的可能性，重点是移动电话依赖数据，同时也讨论了我们的案例示例的比较与重力模型，以及在没有移动性的情况下的动态。我们的主要发现是，迁移率是对第二波大流行的出现的定量理解的关键，并且捕获其捕获的最准确方法涉及基于手机数据的动态（而不是静态）包含时间依赖性的移动矩阵。具有任何迁移率的替代方案无法捕获数据在本文考虑的种群模型的背景下揭示的趋势。
Metapopulation models have been a popular tool for the study of epidemic spread over a network of highly populated nodes (cities, provinces, countries) and have been extensively used in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the present work, we revisit such a model, bearing a particular case example in mind, namely that of the region of Andalusia in Spain during the period of the summer-fall of 2020 (i.e., between the first and second pandemic waves). Our aim is to consider the possibility of incorporation of mobility across the province nodes focusing on mobile-phone time dependent data, but also discussing the comparison for our case example with a gravity model, as well as with the dynamics in the absence of mobility. Our main finding is that mobility is key towards a quantitative understanding of the emergence of the second wave of the pandemic and that the most accurate way to capture it involves dynamic (rather than static) inclusion of time-dependent mobility matrices based on cell-phone data. Alternatives bearing no mobility are unable to capture the trends revealed by the data in the context of the metapopulation model considered herein.
