论文标题
业务优化的因果方法：在线市场上应用
A Causal Approach for Business Optimization: Application on an Online Marketplace
论文作者
论文摘要
一种共同的销售策略涉及让帐户主管（AES）积极联系并与潜在客户联系。但是，并非所有的接触尝试都有积极的效果：有些尝试不会改变客户的决定，而另一些尝试可能会干扰所需的结果。在这项工作中，我们建议使用因果推论来估计与每个潜在客户联系并相应地制定联系政策的效果。我们在在线珠宝市场的数据中证明了这种方法。我们检查了有价值的业务流程，以确定相关的决策和结果，并就其制定方式进行正式的假设。使用因果工具，我们选择了一个决策点，改善AE接触活动似乎是有希望的。然后，我们制定了一个个性化的政策，并建议仅与对其有益的客户联系。最后，我们在3个月内验证了A \ B测试中的结果，从而导致目标人群的项目交付率提高了22％（p值= 0.026）。现在，该政策正在持续使用。
A common sales strategy involves having account executives (AEs) actively reach out and contact potential customers. However, not all contact attempts have a positive effect: some attempts do not change customer decisions, while others might even interfere with the desired outcome. In this work we propose using causal inference to estimate the effect of contacting each potential customer and setting the contact policy accordingly. We demonstrate this approach on data from Worthy, an online jewelry marketplace. We examined the Worthy business process to identify relevant decisions and outcomes, and formalized assumptions on how they were made. Using causal tools, we selected a decision point where improving AE contact activity appeared to be promising. We then generated a personalized policy and recommended reaching out only to customers for whom it would be beneficial. Finally, we validated the results in an A\B test over a 3-month period, resulting in an increase in item delivery rate of the targeted population by 22% (p-value=0.026). This policy is now being used on an ongoing basis.
