论文标题
用于模型选择和参数估算的ABC钻 - 弦上岩石相互作用模型和随机稳定性
ABC for model selection and parameter estimation of drill-string bit-rock interaction models and stochastic stability
论文作者
论文摘要
位摇滚相互作用极大地影响了钻头的动力学。一个关键的条件是粘液滑动振荡，其中扭转振动很高。位角速度从零到大约两次（或更多）最高驱动式角速度。另外，在校准（识别）位摇滚相互作用参数时，应考虑不确定性。本文提出了一个程序，以估算四个位摇滚相互作用模型的参数，其中一个是新的，同时选择最合适的模型，给定可用的字段数据。将大约贝叶斯计算（ABC）用于此目的。对于每个模型的参数，获得了近似的后验概率密度函数，这允许分析不确定性。此外，评估了所选模型的不确定性对系统的扭转稳定性图（改变标称的顶部驱动角速度和重量对位的重量）的影响。
The bit-rock interaction considerably affects the dynamics of a drill string. One critical condition is the stick-slip oscillations, where torsional vibrations are high; the bit angular speed varies from zero to about two times (or more) the top drive nominal angular speed. In addition, uncertainties should be taken into account when calibrating (identifying) the bit-rock interaction parameters. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the parameters of four bit-rock interaction models, one of which is new, and at the same time select the most suitable model, given the available field data. The approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is used for this purpose. An approximate posterior probability density function is obtained for the parameters of each model, which allows uncertainty to be analyzed. Furthermore, the impact of the uncertainties of the selected models on the torsional stability map (varying the nominal top drive angular speed and the weight on bit) of the system is evaluated.
